Back to glossary
Concepts & theories

Mortality doubling time

DESterblichkeits-Verdopplungszeit

Mortality doubling time (MDT) is the number of years it takes for age-specific mortality risk to double, derived directly from the Gompertz exponent b as MDT = ln(2)/b. In contemporary high-income populations, the MDT for all-cause mortality is approximately 7–8 years in mid-adulthood, meaning a 50-year-old's annual risk of dying is roughly twice that of a 42–43-year-old. MDT is a compact summary of the rate of actuarial ageing and is used comparatively across species (where it varies from months in short-lived organisms to ~8 years in humans, while species such as the naked mole-rat appear to defy Gompertz dynamics entirely with no detectable increase in hazard rate over decades of life — Ruby et al., eLife 2018) and across population subgroups, enabling detection of interventions that alter ageing rate rather than merely shifting baseline mortality.

Sources

  1. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS. (2001). The reliability theory of aging and longevity. *Journal of Theoretical Biology*doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2430
  2. Gompertz B. (1825). Gompertz, B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London*doi:10.1098/rstl.1825.0026